World Steel Association forecasts a slight recovery in steel demand

Global steel demand is expected to recover slightly next year. In its latest economic outlook (Short Range Outlook), the World Steel Association (worldsteel) forecasts growth of 1.3 per cent for 2026 – despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and new US tariff threats. Germany continues to bring up the rear among the industrialised nations.

For the current year, the World Steel Association anticipates stagnant demand in its report. As in the previous year, demand stands at around 1.8 billion tonnes of steel. The main factor weighing on the market remains weak demand in China, meaning that massive pressure on international markets will persist.
According to the report, the situation remains particularly tense in Germany, the EU’s largest steel producer. Although worldsteel expects demand to rise slightly by 1.5 per cent to 27 million tonnes by 2025, this should be regarded as a ‘technical recovery’ resulting from restocked inventories. The 4 per6 per cent to 28 million tonnes of hot-rolled steel products, as forecast for 2026, should be viewed against the backdrop of extremely low demand in previous years, according to the industry association Wirtschaftsvereinigung Stahl, and will not exceed the level seen during the global financial crisis of 2009.
For Kerstin Maria Rippel, Chief Executive of the German Steel Association, this is a clear warning sign: “The figures from worldsteel show that the toxic mix of weak demand in Asia and global overcapacity will continue to cause us problems in 2026 and will thus continue to exert massive import pressure on the EU market.” Most recently, the market share of EU steel imports has risen “to an alarming 30 per cent”. This is leading to a structural trade deficit along the entire value chain. “This makes the signal sent by the European Commission in favour of a highly effective, intelligent and balanced protective instrument for the steel trade all the more important. We expect the German Government to now advocate for the introduction of this instrument, which is vital for the survival of our industry,” explains Rippel.
The fact is, according to Rippel, that demand for steel in Germany remains at a low level. Particularly in key steel-processing sectors, such as the automotive industry or mechanical and plant engineering, production continues to decline and is having a negative impact on the steel industry. “Without effective short-term measures to stimulate demand, we cannot expect a turnaround in domestic demand for steel,” says the association’s chief, who is hoping for concrete results from the upcoming steel summit. “The special fund for infrastructure and climate protection is a silver lining on the horizon that could begin to take effect from 2027. However, in order to achieve the hoped-for economic stimulus in future whilst simultaneously strengthening industrial value creation in the country, legislative action must be taken now and investments must clearly prioritise climate-friendly raw materials ‘Made in Germany’ and the EU. The current review of public procurement law presents a huge opportunity here that must not be missed,” the lobbyist urges.
Furthermore, the Steel Summit must identify ways to achieve internationally competitive electricity prices and effective protection against carbon leakage – that is, the relocation of CO₂-intensive production abroad – the association’s head urges. “Only with a decisive package of political measures can Germany as a steel-producing and, ultimately, industrial location be put back on track,” says Rippel.
Source: WV Stahl